Many Republican voters are feeling despondent because the world is falling apart under the tender ministrations of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. One of my relatives was down in the dumps this week because he had seen the polling that shows Kamala Harris is somehow ahead in all the swing states. I had to talk him back down out of a tree. Kamala Harris is not winning and this is not going to be a repeat of the stolen 2020 election. Here’s why.
First, we know from the past two presidential elections that we can’t believe any of the polls from September and October before a presidential election. These are word spells that are designed to demoralize us, so we’ll stay home on election day. Every American that they can convince not to vote is an extra vote that they don’t have to scrounge up for Kamala.
The public polls are BS. As we pointed out previously, pollsters are having to oversample likely Democrat voters by as much as 25 points in swing states, just to make it appear like Kamala Harris is tied with Donald Trump or slightly winning. In reality, this means she could be anywhere from 5 to 20 points behind.
Second, the internal polling that only the campaigns see is what really matters. The public polls are just cheap wizardry that’s trying to demoralize you. The internal polls tell the real story, which is why campaigns keep a tight lid on them.
As of today, the RealClearPolitics polling average for Michigan shows Kamala Harris ahead by +1.8%. Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) has been telling a very different story to donors in private, however. She was doing a private virtual fundraiser last week with Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and a bunch of Democrat Party big-money donors.
Slotkin is running for Michigan’s open US Senate seat against Mike Rogers. She is expected to win the race.
“I’m not feeling my best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan,” Slotkin privately told the donors. “We have her underwater in our polls.”
The national pollsters who call Michigan voters to conduct polls have Harris at +1.8. But the internal pollsters for a wealthy US Senate campaign who are on the ground in Michigan have Kamala Harris underwater. That likely means outside the margin of error, which would mean Trump is ahead by +3.3% or more in Michigan. (1.8 + 3.3 = a 5.1 difference from what the national polling average is saying.)
Elissa Slotkin has no reason to privately lie to her donors. She’s comfortably ahead in her race. She’s telling the truth. Slotkin is bracing her donors so they won’t experience a 2016-style shock on election night if Trump pulls out a victory.
Third, how many poll watchers do you suppose the RNC fielded during the stolen 2020 election? It was between 40,000 and 50,000 for the whole country, or less than 1,000 per state. Poll watching used to be kind of a boring thing that no one wanted to do, because as far as we knew, nobody was cheating massively in our presidential elections.
According to Lara Trump, the RNC has over 200,000 poll watchers signed up for 2024. An army of pro-Trump volunteers has stepped up to keep an eye on the polls, prevent obvious cheating, and challenge illegal aliens who show up to cast ballots for Kamala Harris. They’re also watching the vote counts on any early voting or mail-in ballots that are coming in. This will not be a repeat of the stolen 2020 election.
The 200,000 RNC poll watchers are also separate from the volunteers that organizations like True the Vote (and others) have recruited. The total number should be somewhere north of 300,000 pro-Trump poll watchers.
Finally, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) just went on strike. Who do you suppose voters are going to blame next week when there are brown bananas, empty store shelves, rampaging inflation and layoffs galore across the eastern United States because all the dockworkers are on strike? People always blame the party in power when economic disasters like this happen. This strike isn’t Donald Trump’s fault. It’s Kamala Harris’s fault and the voters will punish her for it.
